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A Closer Look at The West's Playoff Race

There’s less than ten games remaining in the NBA season, and as usual, the Western Conference is a complete logjam. All seeds between the second and the eighth are subject to extreme change, with each team’s fate up in the air in the final stretch of the season. We’ll take a closer look at the most important matchups remaining in the season.

Here’s what we've got today:

  • NBA Wednesday Quick Hitters

  • The Western Conference Playoff Picture Examined

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NBA Wednesday Quick Hitters


🔹 Sharp Money Alert: The Hawks have moved from 4.5-point underdogs to 2-point dogs against the Dallas Mavericks. As is tradition for this newsletter, we recommend fading the Mavs and betting on the plus money here. There are very few teams Dallas should be favored against, and the Hawks are not one of them.


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🔹 Trap Game Warning: It isn’t often you see the Kings as double-digit favorites, but that’s exactly how they find themselves in their matchup with the Wizards. Sacramento is taking 60% of the money at -13.5. The Wizards are at home and have the offensive firepower to only lose by ten in this matchup.

The Western Conference Playoff Picture Examined

It’s rare to see such huge potential for changes in seeding this late in the season, but that’s the case in the West this year. We’ll take a closer look at the seeds up for grabs and the key matchups that will determine the winners.

Key Games

  • LAL vs. GSW, April 3rd

  • HOU vs. OKC, April 4th.

  • DEN vs. GSW, April 4th.

  • HOU vs. GSW, April 6th.

  • LAL vs. OKC, April 6th and 8th.

  • LAC vs. HOU, April 9th.

  • MEM vs. MIN, April 10th.

  • DEN vs. MEM, April 11th.

  • LAL vs. HOU, April 11th.

  • HOU vs. DEN, April 13th.

  • LAC vs. GSW, April 13th.

Seeds 2-4

Somehow, the Rockets have a tenuous hold on the second seed, leading the Nuggets by two games and the Lakers by 2.5. Houston meets both of these teams to close the season, contests that could determine their seeding seeing as they have tough matchups with the Thunder, Warriors, and Clippers prior to those games.

Both the Lakers and the Nuggets could fall as far as the seventh or eighth seed. That’s obviously extremely unlikely, but the fourth-seeded Los Angeles could feasibly tumble down the standings because of multiple games against OKC and the Rockets in addition to a date with the Warriors. The Nuggets only have things slightly easier, encountering the Warriors, Grizzlies, and Rockets. Either team could fall into the bottom half of the standings quite easily despite the fantastic seasons each is experiencing.

Seeds 5-8

It’s ridiculous that all of these seeds can be grouped together. As of now, the standings read Golden State, Memphis, Minnesota, and Los Angeles, in that order. The Grizzlies and the Timberwolves are tied for the sixth seed, sitting half a game back of the Warriors. That half-game lead will be put to the test as the Warriors embark on a three-game stretch in which they face the Lakers, Nuggets, and Rockets.

While Golden State goes through the ringer, the T-Wolves have the NBA equivalent of a walk in the park. Minnesota is matched up with the Nets and the 76ers, all but guaranteeing they catch the Warriors. Memphis has it almost as easy, playing the Heat and the Pistons, likely sans Cade Cunningham. It’s entirely possible that the Warriors fall to seventh seed by the end of this week.

Wrestling the fifth seed back, should it be lost, will likely prove to be easier than holding onto it in the first place. Minnesota and Memphis play each other on April 10th, ensuring the Warriors gain ground on one of them assuming they beat the Spurs. Each goes on to face a playoff team, with the T-Wolves playing the Bucks while the Grizzlies battle the Nuggets. Meanwhile, Golden State has a layup against the Trail Blazers. All in all, it would be a bit surprising to see Golden State in the fifth seed given all of the aforementioned factors. Both of their competitors have easier schedules that they should take advantage of.

And now we come to the Clippers. Despite being three seeds behind Golden State, they are only a game behind. Like the Wolves and the Grizzlies, they only have two matchups with legitimate playoff teams in their future. The rest of their games feature the Pelicans, Mavericks, Spurs, and Kings. While a run isn’t out of the question, it’s highly unlikely that Los Angeles sweeps those opponents. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Clippers move up, but their half-game deficit to Minnesota and Memphis looms large when every team has extremely similar strength of schedule.

Overall, this playoff picture is essentially anybody’s guess. If we had to put together a prediction, it would look like this.

  1. Oklahoma City Thunder

  2. Houston Rockets

  3. Denver Nuggets

  4. Memphis Grizzlies

  5. Los Angeles Lakers

  6. Golden State Warriors

  7. Los Angeles Clippers

  8. Minnesota Timberwolves

 

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