We’ve got the full slate of the NBA Playoffs today, but only one of those games is really worth watching. The Celtics and Cavaliers are on cruise control in the first round, as is tradition for the highly-seeded Eastern Conference teams, so we’ll forgo those teams until things get more competitive. On the other side of the bracket, the Lakers and Timberwolves are engaged in a no-holds-barred dogfight, led by some of the biggest stars in the league. That’s where the action is.

We’re also back in the Octagon this weekend after a brief hiatus, so we’ll have our classic UFC coverage as well.

Here’s what we've got today:

• Lakers vs. Timberwolves Pick

• Picking the UFC Slate

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Lakers vs. Timberwolves Pick

After a dominant Game 2 win, the Lakers will come into Minnesota as 3-point dogs. Los Angeles rebounded well from a tough loss, displaying a significant increase in defensive urgency and team play on offense. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves came back to Earth from the three-point line, shooting only 20% from deep en route to one of their worst offensive performances of the season.

In order for the Lakers to keep the good times rolling, they will need increased contributions from Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura. Reaves has been particularly underwhelming, shooting 0/6 from three in Game 2. Hachimura posted only 11 points last time out, missing his two three-point attempts. Luka Doncic can carry the offense to an extent, and LeBron James is good for 20 points per night, but they alone cannot propel Los Angeles to good offensive performances, particularly against a defense as good as Minnesota’s. Things won’t get any easier for Reaves and Hachimura as they head to hostile territory here.

Despite the loss, the T-Wolves can’t feel all that bad about Game 2. They shot abnormally badly, and dealt with early foul trouble to Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, and Jaden McDaniels. Those issues won’t last into Game 3, seeing as the Timberwolves are one of the better shooting teams in the NBA, and the fouls are a matter of disciplined play. That, combined with home court advantage, should help the Timberwolves to a much better Game 3 performance.

We’ll take Minnesota’s spread here. They should shoot infinitely better than they did in Game 2, and minimal foul trouble will allow their depth to take advantage of a significantly thinner Los Angeles lineup.

Picking the UFC Slate

UFC Kansas City is one of the best Fight Night cards that’s come along in recent memory, headlined by two legitimate title contenders in the welterweight division. Along with an excellent bunch of fights, we’ve got plenty of great betting opportunities highlighted below.

Lock of the Night: Zhang Minyang by KO (-200)

It’s ridiculous to see a knockout prop at -200, but this one is worth it. Anthony Smith has all but given up on his UFC career, dropping his hands and allowing Dominick Reyes to knock him out before announcing that this fight would be his last. Minyang is an up-and-coming power puncher who will oblige Smith by knocking him into retirement in the late second or early third round.

Upset of the Night: Cameron Saaiman (-102)

We’ll admit this is cheating a little bit, but we really believe Saaiman will get a win here. He’s one of the most technically gifted bantamweights in the unranked pool, utilizing an insane kickboxing game to pick apart opponents. Malcolm Wellmaker has a ton of hype around him, but his Contender Series fight showed a guy who has a ton of power and potential, but not a whole lot of experience or technical skill. Saaiman will outlast him and win on the scorecards.

Fade of the Night: Michel Pereira vs Abus Magomedov

Both of these guys are good fighters, but they’re each one of the most inconsistent members of the middleweight roster. Pereira has elite power and some creative striking, but his gas tank has been a consistent issue. Magomedov is essentially the same, just replacing power with a much better grappling game. Neither guy can be counted on to really show up on fight night, so it’s best to refrain from betting on either.

Main Event Pick: Ian Machado-Garry (-130)

Garry is a controversial figure, but that doesn’t change the fact that he has more paths to victory than his opponent, Carlos Prates, does. The Irishman has proven himself to be an above-average grappler, utilizing his jiu-jitsu to drag opponents down and hold them to the canvas. It’s not an exciting style of fight, but that’s exactly what Garry will do to a pure Muay Thai striker in Prates. It’s possible that Garry finds a submission, but he’ll likely extinguish the hype around Prates with another boring, technically elite performance.

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