A common criticism of the NBA is that regular season games often feel meaningless. Six months of basketball containing 1,230 total games will create that sentiment, especially towards the middle of the year. A February Wednesday would usually only further that sentiment, but not this one. There are several consequential games on tonight, especially in the Western Conference. We’ve got coverage and picks for all of the biggest ones below.

Here’s what we've got today:

• NBA Quick Hitters

• Warriors-Mavericks Same Game Parlay

• Grizzlies-Clippers Pick

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NBA Quick Hitters

🔹 Sharp Money Alert: We made money against the Mavericks in this section on Monday, and we’ll look to do it again here. The Warriors opened as 5-point favorites against Dallas, a number that’s currently down to 4 despite a rash of injuries to the Mavs. Even if PJ Washington plays, Golden State’s spread is worth a look.
🔹 Odds Boost to Grab: Sleeper Picks is currently offering a 100% deposit match up to $1,500, compared to a 50% deposit match from Underdog. If you need a new book, Sleeper is worth a gander.
🔹 Trap Game Warning: Despite a couple of injuries, the Timberwolves are taking 71% of the public money as 6.5-point favorites against the Bucks. Minnesota will likely be forced into starting two backups, and while Giannis Antetokounmpo is injured, 6.5 is a bit too big of a spread to be comfortable with. Neither side is particularly appealing, so best to look to other games instead.

Warriors-Mavericks Same Game Parlay

Knock on wood, but the newsletter is heating up a little bit. Monday’s parlay smashed thanks to Luka Doncic taking it easy in his return to action. Let’s keep the ball rolling in this game.

Draymond Green Under 9.5 Points

This one feels like a bit of a gimme, which means Green will bank in four threes by halftime. The longtime Warrior has been particularly poor on offense lately, shooting 44% from the field and 16%(!) from three in his last ten games.

The arrival of Jimmy Butler has shifted Green to the five while adding a new mouth to feed offensively, two factors that limit Green’s offensive touches even more. The Mavericks aren’t a bad matchup, but Draymond is a below-average scorer in a system that won’t get him the touches necessary to crack the over.

Jimmy Butler Over 19.5 Points

Butler is the clear second option on the Warriors, and that status has afforded him ample opportunity to run up his scoring numbers. He took 12 shots in each of his games with Golden State and managed to hit this line in each, despite shooting at a 33% clip last time out.

It helps that PJ Washington is unlikely to play in this game. Butler will have plus matchups all night, likely drawing Dante Exum or Klay Thompson for much of the night. Neither man is particularly intimidating, reinforcing the faith in this pick.

Klay Thompson Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made

This is a safer bet than Thompson’s points line. He’s shot 45% from three in his last ten games, and the Warriors are a good matchup for shooting guards who can hit from distance. Buddy Hield is a known defensive liability, and Thompson has always played well against his former team since becoming a Maverick.

Here’s a look at this would bet would net you on Underdog Sports.

Grizzlies-Clippers Pick

In another potential playoff preview, the Los Angeles Clippers will host the Memphis Grizzlies in the Intuit Dome. Both teams will deploy a full starting lineup in what should be an intensely competitive nightcap. The odds are as follows.

Seeing the Grizzlies as underdogs comes as a bit of a shock. Memphis will come into the game on less than 24 hours of rest, a situation in which they own a 7-1 record on the season, both straight-up and against the spread. On the road, the Grizzlies have been a moneymaker, covering their spread 64% of the time.

Stylistically, this is also a plus matchup for head coach Taylor Jenkins’ squad. Memphis prefers to get the ball into the open court and run, utilizing transition basketball more than any team in the NBA. The Clippers are a bottom-ten team in terms of fast break points allowed, struggling to contain opponents like the Grizzlies.

Memphis is even a solid defensive matchup here. Los Angeles relies on scoring in the paint in droves, a tough prospect against the Grizzlies’ duo of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey. Jackson is one of, if not the best shot blocker in the NBA, and Edey is no defensive slouch either, racking up five blocks and four steals in his last four games.

Unless the Grizzlies have late additions to the injury report, the newsletter money is going to them. They’re an excellent matchup and they don’t even have to win outright.

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