It's Finally Here

March 19, 2025

Thank goodness it’s time for March Madness. We’ve been on a steady diet of the NBA and the UFC, so we’re grateful to have a nice changeup that will carry us into the true Opening Day of the MLB.

Here’s what we've got today:

  • Mt. St. Mary’s vs. American Pick

  • Xavier vs. Texas Pick

  • NBA Player Prop Parlay

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Mt. St. Mary’s vs. American Pick

The second set of First Four games will tip off with a battle of 16th-ranked seeds. The Mt. St. Mary’s Mountaineers will take on the American University Eagles, with the winner having the whole nation behind them as they take on the Duke Blue Devils. Here’s a look at the odds.

Mt. St. Mary’s Key Players

  • F Dola Adebayo: Adebayo leads the Mountaineers in points per game and blocks per game. This game is going to be a defensive slugfest, so Adebayo will have to continue to contribute on both ends to keep St. Mary’s competitive in this one.

  • G Xavier Lipscomb: Lipscomb paces his team in minutes, providing an excellent defensive presence while leading the Mountaineers in assists per game. His biggest contribution will come on defense against American guard Elijah Stevens.

American’s Key Players

  • F Matt Rogers: Rogers is easily the best scorer on the Eagles, shooting 55% from the field and 39% from three. Without him, American doesn’t get much done on the offensive end, so he’ll need to continue to carry the scoring in order to get any sort of team production against a solid defensive opponent.

  • G Elijah Stevens: The aforementioned Stevens is a truly well-rounded player, contributing at a high level to the scoring and distributing departments, and on the defensive end. Limiting his turnovers will be crucial against the steal-happy Mountaineers.

ATS Stats to Know

  • The Mountaineers are 3-0 ATS in neutral site games.

  • The Mountaineers are 11-3 ATS as away underdogs.

  • The Mountaineers are 5-3 ATS with three days of rest.

  • The Eagles are 2-0 ATS in neutral site games.

  • The Eagles are 12-8-1 ATS with three days of rest.

Final Pick

This game will be a classic grit-and-grind affair, and these teams are as even as it gets. With that being said, we’ll take Mt. St. Mary’s and the points.

Xavier vs. Texas Pick

This game will be far more entertaining than the first one. Both teams have a fleet of exciting players and a legitimate chance to advance past the first round, so let’s cut to the chase and get into the pick.

Xavier’s Key Players

  • F Zach Freemantle: Freemantle is an excellent all-around player, contributing well in almost every single stat category. Without a big game from him it’s almost certain that Xavier is sent home without a chance to go dancing.

  • G Ryan Conwell: If Freemantle is Batman, Conwell is a damn good Robin, if Robin could shoot the three-ball at a 41% clip. Conwell is far and away the best shooter on the team, a crucial role to play against a high-scoring Texas team.

The Longhorns’ Key Players

  • G Tre Johnson: Johnson is the undisputed top dog of this Longhorns squad. He can give anyone 20 points on any given night while playing solid defense over 35 minutes. He might have to play all 40 in what should be a closely contested game.

  • F Arthur Kaluma: Kaluma leads Texas in rebounds per game, while trailing only Johnson in points per game. He will likely see a heavy dose of Freemantle, making for an excellent matchup between two premier forwards.

ATS Stats to Know

  • Xavier is 6-1 ATS against ranked opponents.

  • Xavier is 3-1 ATS as an away favorite.

  • Texas is 5-2 ATS in non-conference games.

  • Texas is 1-3 ATS in neutral site games.

Final Pick

It’s another close one, one so competitive that it’s a bit of a shock to see such a large spread. We’ll stick with the March Madness theme and take the Longhorns and the points.

NBA Player Prop Parlay

We had a unique stat line of 1-1-1 in the last iteration of this series, so it’s time to turn things around. Restarting the streak of sweeps would be a nice way to end a great day of basketball.

Stephon Castle Over 19.5 Points (-112)

We faded Castle last time, a pick that represented itself in the loss column. Castle has been San Antonio’s best player since Victor Wembanyama’s injury, and the Knicks have been fairly mediocre at defending shooting guards. -112 is a very solid price here.

Devin Booker Over 26.5 Points (-120)

Booker feels like a lock to play 35 minutes or more every time the Suns walk out there, a rare opportunity share on any team in the NBA. Bradley Beal won’t play (again), increasing Booker’s opportunities even more. It’s also entirely feasible that this game against the Bulls comes down to the wire. All of these factors point to Booker shooting around 20 shots, so we’re happy with this bet.

Cade Cunningham Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made (+124)

At first glance, this is a total fade. Upon closer examination, it’s not bad at all. Cunningham is shooting 24% from three in his last ten games, including some truly awful showings against the Thunder and Washington. The Heat have been excellent at defending opposing shooting guards, so we’ll definitely take plus money on this bet.

Parlay Bet: 3-Leg Spread on FanDuel

  • Leg 1: Stephon Castle Over 19.5 Points – (-112)

  • Leg 2: Devin Booker Over 26.5 Points – (-120)

  • Leg 3: Cade Cunningham Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made – (+124)

Try your luck with our featured parlay bet! Check out the odds and details above, then click the button to place your wager on FanDuel.

 

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