What a great week of sports we’ve had. Monday featured an absolute nail-biter of a National Championship game, and with the NBA season winding down, we’ve got important games all over the schedule. Capping the week off is one of the best UFC pay-per-views in a while, headlined by a featherweight title clash between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes. The Weekender will provide a more in-depth look at the card, but we’ve got a closer look at the headlining division’s fate in this newsletter.

Here’s what we've got today:

• NBA Quick Hitters

• NBA Player Prop Parlay

• Matchmaking the UFC Featherweight Division

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NBA Quick Hitters

🔹 Sharp Money Alert: The Lakers have moved from 4.5-point favorites to 5-point favorites against the Mavs. It’s the battle of the two teams we consistently recommend fading, but no one out-fades Dallas. Luka Doncic’s revenge game should lead to an absolute slaughter, so we’re happy to take the Lakers here.

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🔹 Trap Game Warning: The Nuggets are taking 70% of the money as 2-point favorites against the Kings. Sacramento has won three straight, is at home, and the Nuggets just fired their head coach and general manager. Ride with the Kings in this one.

NBA Player Prop Parlay: Lakers vs. Mavericks

It’s been a while since this segment has been featured, and it left off on a fairly hot streak. We’ll look to continue that as we pick a few props in the aforementioned Doncic revenge game that everyone has been looking forward to.

1) Luka Doncic Under 29.5 Points (-112)

We’ll take advantage of the narrative of this game by taking the under. This line is juiced to the gills thanks to the dynamic at play, just like Doncic’s lines were when he first returned from injury. The Mavs will be throwing the kitchen sink at Doncic to prevent a big game, so picking the under on a line that should be closer to 27.5 is an easy call.

2) LeBron James Over 23.5 Points (-114)

This is a natural pair with the Doncic under. LeBron has quietly killed the Mavericks, cashing this over in four of his last five games against Dallas. Assume Luka doesn’t go nuclear, this should cash fairly easily.

3) Anthony Davis Over 9.5 Rebounds (-114)

The Lakers have been pretty poor at denying opposing big men rebounds, largely thanks to the fact that they start Jaxson Hayes at center. Davis should clear this one easily to round out the all-trade package parlay.

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Matchmaking the UFC Featherweight Division

The UFC’s lower weight classes have long been some of the most complicated in all of combat sports, and featherweight is no exception. With the boogeyman Ilia Topuria officially moving to lightweight, everyone in the division has new life, especially those who have previously lost in title or number one contender fights. We’ll matchmake everyone in the top 10 to make this one of, if not the, most exciting division in the promotion.

It’s important to note that Topuria is still considered the champ until he steps into the octagon as a lightweight, so he’s still technically at the top of the rankings. Additionally, Max Holloway and Brian Ortega have made it clear that they both intend to move to 155 permanently, so they won’t be included below.

#1 Alexander Volkanovski vs. #3 Diego Lopes

This one is obviously booked already, but it’s worth writing about the major implications it has for the division. If Volk loses, everyone who he’s beaten has a new lease on life and a new claim to a title shot. If Lopes wins, it’s almost certain that Movsar Evloev gets the next title shot given that he is the only man in the UFC to beat Lopes. It’s either a new era of the division or a return to a very old one.

#4 Movsar Evloev vs. UFC 314 Winner

There’s been talk of Evloev fighting UFC newcomer Aaron Pico in an Apex main event, but that’s pure heresy if it happens. Evloev is 19-0 with nine consecutive wins in the UFC, including the aforementioned victory over Lopes. He needs to fight for the title, even if he isn’t exactly must-see TV.

#5 Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbull

Can’t say we love the matchmaking on this one, but what’s done is done. Rodriguez will look to rebound against the UFC debutante Pitbull, a rebound that would be the Mexican’s first win since early 2023. With a win in his debut, Pitbull launches himself in the top five, a position he would likely have to defend against the likes of Aljamain Sterling or Arnold Allen.

#7 Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva (With Win at UFC 314)

It’s tough to force Allen into a gatekeeping role, but he’s the odd man out in the top ten. His best victory is probably Giga Chikadze, and that’s not a particularly inspiring victory. He’s tripped up every time the matchmakers have given him a step up, so someone below him is a better match.

Silva is one of the most exciting prospects in the UFC, and assuming he steamrolls Bryce Mitchell like he’s supposed to, Dana White will be looking to expedite his run to the top. Allen is a beatable opponent, one that has little chance of exposing any of Silva’s weaknesses. Book it once Mitchell is flatlined in Miami.

#8 Lerone Murphy vs. Rodriguez-Pitbull Winner

Murphy is on an eight-fight win streak, but none of them have been particularly good. Realistically, he’s still a couple of fights from a title shot. However, that win streak has to count for something, so a top-five opponent should be on the docket. The winner of this weekend’s fight will also need a couple more wins to jump to title contention. Knocking off a streaking prospect would certainly get the attention of Dana and his cronies.

#9 Aljamain Sterling vs. #12 Youssef Zalal

Despite the big name, Sterling is due to fight down. His only win at featherweight came against Calvin Kattar, which can essentially be counted as a non-fight. With the rest of the division moving up, it’s time for Aljo to defend his ranking against someone on the comeup.

Zalal fits the bill more than anyone else. He’s won four straight, and his annoying tendency to grapple in a boring fashion can best be matched by Sterling’s elite style. It’s another matchup that would make two snoozer fighters bring out the best in each other while benefitting one another in the rankings.

#10 Josh Emmett vs. #15 Dan Ige

Neither of these guys is sniffing a title shot, so why not put together a fun scrap that features two of the best divisional power punchers beating the snot out of each other? Emmett hasn’t won since 2023, so he should be happy to take a fight far down the rankings. Similarly, it’s been over a year since an Ige victory, so this is a bit of a reward for him taking a fight on a couple hours’ notice at UFC 303.

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