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NFL Free Agency Preview
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These have got to be some of the slowest days of sports of the year. Yeah, the NBA All-Star games were yesterday, but aside from that, there’s really nothing going on aside from some hockey until the NBA returns on Wednesday. Instead of usual betting content, we’ll pivot to a preview of the upcoming NFL free agency cycle which opens in less than a month.
Here’s what we've got today:
Free Agency Preview of Running Backs and Wide Receivers
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Top Free Agent Running Backs and Their Fits
Surprisingly, running back is one of the thinnest positions on the market this offseason. There won’t be any Saquon Barkley-level signings this offseason, but the position is still worth looking at.
1) Aaron Jones
2024 stats: 255 attempts, 1,138 yards, 5 touchdowns
Jones signed a one-year deal with the Minnesota Vikings to prove that he’s still got it. He proved exactly that, racking up well over a 1,000 yards while adding excellent receiving production to Minnesota’s top-five offense. While he is on the wrong side of 30, Jones should be in line to receive a short-term deal from a contending team looking for a little more offensive juice.
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The Commanders stand out as strong fit for Jones. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury really values pass-catching backs, and the duo of Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler suffered through various injuries while producing at a subpar level. The Cowboys could also take a look at Jones to upgrade one of the worst running back rooms in football.
2) Najee Harris
2024 stats: 263 attempts, 1,043 yards, 6 touchdowns
It’s going to be hard for Harris to find a full-time job this offseason. He’s a huge back that lacks top-end speed and receiving ability, making him a likely platoon candidate. A role like the one Robinson has in Washington would be perfect for him, ideally on a short-term contract.
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There are a couple of squads that could provide the exact setting Harris needs to succeed. The Saints have always preferred to match Alvin Kamara with a big power back, and they don’t have an ideal compliment on roster right now. Buffalo turned to a split backfield towards the end of the year, partially to keep starter James Cook fresh. Their backup, Ty Johnson, is set to sign elsewhere, so Harris could fill the void nicely.
3) JK Dobbins
2024 stats: 195 attempts, 905 yards, 9 touchdowns
Signing with Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers revitalized Dobbins’ career. The former Baltimore Raven put together the most complete season of his life, missing only a couple of games thanks to injury.
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The injury bug has plagued Dobbins for the entirety of his NFL career, likely preventing him from signing a deal to be any team’s workhorse running back. Staying with the Chargers is likely his best option, as he’s a great system fit and will likely get a new backfield mate, either through free agency or the draft.
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Top Free Agent Wide Receivers and Their Fits
Barring a storm of franchise tags, this free agent wide receiver class is set to make quite a bit of money. A mixture of big names and quality depth highlight one of the better waves of receivers to hit the market.
1) Tee Higgins
2024 stats: 73 receptions, 911 yards, 10 touchdowns
At only 26 years old, Higgins is set to receive an absolutely massive contract. His physical traits and the ability to make contested catches make him a prototypical X receiver, one that any team would love to have on the outside. The Bengals would love to retain him, but it might simply be too much of a hit to the wallet for a cap-strapped Cincinnati team with a lot of needs.
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Alternatively, two AFC East teams could shell out the necessary cash to acquire Higgins. The Jets and the Patriots both have plenty of cap and a need at receiver. A better fit than both is the Los Angeles Chargers. LA has an established quarterback, a strong roster, and plenty of money to spend. Ladd McConkey would be a fantastic second fiddle to Higgins in the pass game, turning LA with Higgins into one of the most offensively potent teams in the AFC.
2) Stefon Diggs
2024 stats: 47 receptions, 496 yards, 3 touchdowns
A receiver over 30 who’s coming off of an ACL tear isn’t typically an appealing target, but Diggs still has plenty left in the tank. He was playing good, albeit somewhat inconsistent football with the Texans before his injury, clearly proving he can be either a low-tier first option or elite second option for whatever team signs him next.
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There are plenty of receiver-needy teams in the AFC that could make a run at Diggs. The Ravens have needed help at the position for the last five years, and an aging, past-his-prime receiver is a classic Baltimore signing. The Steelers could attempt to pair him with George Pickens, making Pittsburgh a cushier landing spot for whatever quarterback they try to lure in.
3) Chris Godwin
2024 stats: 50 receptions, 576 yards, 5 touchdowns
Another guy who’s coming off of a season-ending injury, Godwin should net a much more active market than Diggs. He’s a couple of years younger and far more consistent, not to mention the locker room drama Diggs seems to bring wherever he goes.
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The Chargers will likely look into Godwin as well as Higgins, despite the fact that Godwin plays similarly to McConkey. The Bills seem like a good candidate too, although Khalil Shakir has largely locked down the slot role that Godwin plays so well. The Panthers stand out as the best fit, as Godwin would immediately be the best pass-catcher by a wide margin on a team that desperately needs a top dog.
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