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Super Bowl LIX: Breakdown and Bets

It all comes down to this. The Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles will face off with so much more than just the Lombardi Trophy on the line. Fame, fortune, legacy, and history hang in the balance as the Chiefs attempt the first-ever threepeat in the storied timeline of the NFL. Whoever manages to add their team to the list of champions on Sunday should make us some money, so let’s get into all of the best bets for the biggest sports day of the year.

Here’s what we've got today:

  • Player Prop Parlay

  • Game Breakdown and Straight Pick

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Super Bowl Player Prop Parlay

The Super Bowl is one of the best games of the year to bet player props. Aside from the obvious entertainment value, the influx of bettors can create favorable lines. Below are the ones we can take advantage of.

Saquon Barkley 100+ Rushing Yards (-162)

For any other running back, this would be a downright ridiculous line. For Saquon Barkley, it’s surprising these aren’t worse odds than -162. He’s cashed this line in nine of his last ten games, and he’s sure to be a focal point of the Philadelphia offense once more here. It isn’t an appealing straight bet, but it’s very playable as a leg in the parlay.

Travis Kelce 60+ Receiving Yards (-108)

This pick was outlined in The Weekender newsletter. The Eagles have been awful against opposing tight ends throughout the postseason, most recently allowing 11 catches and 104 yards to Zach Ertz of the Commanders. Kelce takes a huge percentage of Kansas City’s targets, and he’s Mahomes’ most trusted target. This should cash easily.

Xavier Worthy 60+ Receiving Yards (+120)

I expect the Chiefs to rely on the passing game for all four quarters. Behind Kelce, Worthy has been the most reliable target for this offense. His speed makes this an especially attractive bet, as any time he catches the ball he’s a threat to take it the distance. Worthy should see a steady diet of targets, which should allow him to scrape 70 or 80 yards together.

Here’s a look at what this parlay would net you.

Game Breakdown and Straight Bet

We wouldn’t be doing the Super Bowl justice without picking a winner. Below is a full breakdown of the key offensive factors for both teams and a final pick for who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy in New Orleans. Here’s a look at the odds.

When The Eagles Are On Offense

The story for the Eagles’ offense has not changed since their NFC championship victory over the Commanders. Feed the run game, let Saquon go to work, and work the play action passing game off of the successful ground attack.

They should have ample opportunity to do that against the Chiefs. Kansas City has struggled to contain the rushing attack against teams with mobile quarterbacks. James Cook of the Buffalo Bills averaged 6.5 yards per carry against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game, largely because the rushing threat posed by Josh Allen commanded so much of the defense’s attention. Jalen Hurts will pose a similar threat, and the Eagles will likely look to involve him in the run game early and often to redirect attention off of Barkley. 

In the passing game, Philly should encounter a high percentage of man coverage. Their answer to that has been to rely on the excellent talent of their pass-catchers. AJ Brown remains one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, a challenge that will be answered by All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie.

The real advantage will come with Devonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert. Jaylen Watson mans the other cornerback position for Kansas City and has largely provided solid play, but leaving him one-on-one with Smith is a tall ask.

Goedert has been a reliable checkdown target throughout the postseason, and he should be able to continue to find gaps against zone coverage when it’s faced here.

When The Chiefs Are On Offense

Kansas City’s offense will attack in a completely different way than Philadelphia’s. The Chiefs have struggled to run the ball efficiently for a while now, so the game will in be Patrick Mahomes’ hands. 

In order to replicate the AFC Championship success, Mahomes will have to follow a similar game plan. The ball should come out as quickly as possible to mitigate the fantastic Philadelphia pass rush. Screen passes, slants, and soft spots over the middle will all be primary targets for Mahomes as he looks to stay clean in the pocket.

Without a dominant receiver on the outside, Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy will both have to pick up massive slack. Kelce has been talked about at length throughout this newsletter and the last, so no need to rehash that.

Worthy has been fantastic lately, stepping into the shoes the front office envisioned him wearing when they selected him in the first round. Stretching the field will be key to stressing the Eagles’ defense at every opportunity, making life easier for Mahomes and the offensive line.

These teams are about as evenly matched as it gets, but the Eagles have more firepower on both sides of the ball. The defensive line is a huge strength, one that destroyed Mahomes in his first trip to the big game.

Offensively, Barkley will lead the charge while Hurts racks up rushing yards, eating the clock and keeping Mahomes on the sideline. Philadelphia should do enough to reenter the Promised Land and write the team name in the history books once more.

 

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