So it begins. Today marks the opening stage of the NBA playoffs, featuring the first two play-in games between the seventh and eighth seeds in each conference. We’ve got analysis and picks for each.

Here’s what we've got today:

• Hawks-Magic Pick

• Grizzlies-Warriors Pick

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Hawks vs. Magic Pick

The Atlanta Hawks will open the slate with a visit to the Kia Center for their matchup with the Orlando Magic. We can’t say this is a battle of two teams that truly have a chance at contention, but it should be a good game nonetheless.

Everyone knows what the Hawks are and the problems they present. Trae Young leads one of the highest-scoring offenses in the NBA, consistently giving defenses fits by utilizing a ridiculous pace driven by Young’s scoring and passing. That game speed will be the story of the game, given that the Magic rank dead last in the NBA in pace.

On the defensive side of things, these teams are once again complete opposites. The Magic rank second in defensive efficiency while Atlanta ranks 18th. While Orlando is a solid defensive team up and down the lineup, the Hawks have a number of deficiencies, particularly in the backcourt.

The keys to victory for the Hawks are clear. Young must play upwards of 40 minutes and continue to engineer fast break after fast break. The Magic rank 27th in offensive efficiency, a stat that relays Orlando’s struggles to produce half-court offense. That, combined with their terrible pace, means that the Magic can be run off of the court. Atlanta should do its best to minimize its own half-court sets, instead aiming to maximize possessions and shot attempts at all costs.

The Magic make their money on defense, but the Hawks are a nightmare matchup for them. They do not have a player capable of sticking with Young, while Atlanta has multiple players suited to guarding Orlando’s primary offensive producers. Dyson Daniels will likely be tasked with slowing down Franz Wagner while Rookie of the Year Zaccharie Risacher takes on Paulo Banchero. While those matchups still do swing in favor of the Magic, it isn’t by much.

Overall, it’s hard to see why the Hawks are such big underdogs. Atlanta has produced offensively against Orlando every time they’ve played, splitting the season series 2-2. We’re happy to lay the money on the five-point dogs and ride with the Hawks.

Grizzlies vs. Warriors Pick

Speaking of pace, we’ve got a Grizzlies game on tap. Memphis is like Atlanta on steroids, pushing the ball even more than the Hawks while performing significantly better defensively. They’ll duel with one of the hottest teams in the NBA in the Golden State Warriors here.

To be frank, there isn’t much reason to like the Grizzlies in this contest. They’re on the road and haven’t been particularly good throughout the recent going. The Warriors won the season series 3-1 and have looked to be in much better form since adding Jimmy Butler to the lineup.

The complexion of Golden State’s lineup should be torturous for the Grizzlies to deal with. Memphis will deploy Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey on the front line, a recipe for disaster against the Warriors’ newest rendition of small-ball. Edey will consistently be put in the pick-and-roll and abused, and Jackson loses a lot of his appeal once matched up with Butler. The Grizzlies will likely be forced to play Santi Aldama for a hefty portion of minutes, which isn’t particularly appealing given that he isn’t much of a solution for Butler either.

Things get even worse when considering the discrepancy between three-point shooting prowess of these teams. In a crucial game against the Timberwolves, Memphis was annihilated by efficient shooting from deep, partially because the T-Wolves shot insanely well and partially because the Grizzlies are incapable of keeping up in a firefight. Desmond Bane and Jackson are both great shooters, but Bane is the only one who sees significant volume. Morant has come on strong in that category, but his game is still built around his ability to slash to the hoop.

On the other side, the Warriors are one of the best three-point teams in the league. They shoot the second-most threes per game in the league, and every member of their starting lineup is capable of pulling from beyond the arc. It helps that Stephen Curry has shot 41% from deep in his last ten games, putting on some truly ridiculous performances thanks to his shooting. The Grizzlies simply do not shoot the necessary volume of threes to keep pace with Golden State, especially if the Warriors shoot moderately well.

As you’ve probably guessed, we’ll take Golden State’s spread in this one. The Grizzlies will keep things close throughout the first half, but the Warriors should utilize their superior shooting and defensive versatility to win by a fairly wide margin.

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