The Play-In: Day 2

April 16, 2025

The first day of the play-in gave us one game that was the definition of mediocre and another that was an absolute thriller. Unfortunately, both of our bets missed, but we’ve got two more play-in games to right the ship and get ourselves to 2-2 heading into the real NBA playoff run.

Here’s what we've got today:

  • Bulls vs. Heat Pick

  • Mavericks vs. Kings Pick

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Bulls vs. Heat Pick

The Hawks-Magic game wasn’t exactly a thriller, and despite a closer spread, it’s hard to see this game being any better. Neither of these teams earned a winning record during the regular season and neither deserve to sniff the postseason, but that’s neither here nor there. Let’s get into the pick.

It is an absolute shock to see the Bulls enter this game as the favorites, even if it’s only by one point. Chicago ranks 20th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and 19th in defensive rating, relying on the tandem of Josh Giddey and Coby White to facilitate offense while the defense flounders in most matchups.

A common denominator in Chicago’s wins has been the reliance on Giddey to have huge performances in multiple stat categories. If he isn’t able to score and distribute at a high level, the offense peters out and relies on a series of one-on-one possessions from White and center Nikola Vucevic. That formula will certainly be disrupted by a Heat team that ranks ninth in defensive efficiency while being coached by one of the best postseason minds of all time in Erik Spoelstra.

The Heat match up extraordinarily well with the Bulls, particularly on defense. Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware are interchangeable against Vucevic while Andrew Wiggins should be able to staunch the flow of Giddey’s seemingly constant offensive production.

Offensively, Miami has had no trouble scoring against the Bulls in past matchups, putting up a minimum of 109 points in every meeting this season. Guard Tyler Herro, the best player between both teams, will have a great game against a mediocre defense that matches up poorly with his skillset.

The key difference will be in the coaching. Spoelstra has proven time and time again that he can make key adjustments in the postseason, adjustments that mean the difference between winning and losing. It’s hard to see him losing to a less talented, less disciplined Chicago team that has very few redeeming qualities. Despite the losing record against the Bulls in the regular season, we’re happy to ride with Miami.

Mavericks vs. Kings Pick

Ah, the Mavericks. You know how we feel about Dallas in this newsletter, but we’ll give them fair consideration as they fight to keep their season alive against the Kings.

This game has some key similarities to the Grizzlies-Warriors matchup. The Mavericks deploy two bigs in most of their lineups, starting with Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively. Unfortunately for Dallas, it’s hard to see Lively or his backup Daniel Gafford having much of a positive impact against Sacramento’s small-ball lineup. Either one can match up with Domantas Sabonis, but that leaves Anthony Davis to guard Keegan Murray, diminishing his ability to protect the rim and provide that defensive presence Nico Harrison values so much. Because of that, Davis will likely have to play the five while Caleb Martin and Naji Marshall play plenty of minutes to match up with Murray.

Forcing that switch gives the Kings a huge advantage. Dallas is at its best when its bigs can play, but it just doesn’t make sense for the centers to be on the floor here. Sacramento has depth that is much better suited to playing the small-ball game that they will force the Mavs into playing in this game.

The discrepancy in scoring depth will also play a large factor. The Mavs need a massive game from Anthony Davis to keep things close, given that they don’t really have that many scoring options besides him. Sacramento has three guys who can legitimately be the first scoring option on any given possession, a dynamic that should allow them to score far more efficiently than the Mavericks.

This won’t come as any surprise to any veteran reader of this newsletter, but we’re fading the Mavericks. They match up poorly with the Kings in pretty much every way, so barring a massive game from Anthony Davis, Sacramento should win and cover. We’re 6-1 in recommending bets against Dallas, and this game will make us 7-1.

 

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