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The Weekender: The UFC Returns to Mexico
For the second week in a row, we’ve got an excellent UFC card abroad. This time, it’s in Mexico City, headlined by flyweights Brandon Moreno and Steve Erceg. It’s a stacked card top to bottom, and we’ve got all the details on it.
Here’s what we've got today:
UFC Fight Night Picks and Fades
UFC Mexico Main Event Breakdown
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UFC Picks and Fades
Here we go. There are a ton of important, interesting fights on this card, but we’ll narrow down what you need to know to the usual format.
Lock of the Night: Joe Pyfer (-350)
The UFC did Pyfer a favor with this matchup. He’s a big power puncher matched up against an aging striker who’s best days are behind him. It’s also a three-round fight, negating the cardio that might just be Pyfer’s biggest weakness. Gastelum is no slouch, but Pyfer is more explosive, more powerful, and much younger. He should get a late stoppage in this one.
Fade of the Night: Edgar Chairez vs. CJ Vergara
It’s another flyweight banger following last week’s matchup between Lone’er Kavanagh and Felipe dos Santos. Chairez and Vergara will put up a back-and-forth battle, but with severe inconsistencies on both sides, it’s tough to realistically pick a side. It doesn’t help that Chairez is a big favorite. The Mexican has a good chance at finding a finish, but knocking out Vergara is a big ask. Stay away.
Upset of the Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Ronaldo Rodriguez
The UFC is excellent at building hype trains, and their work is evident on Ronaldo Rodriguez. The Mexican prospect is solid, but a couple of loud-mouth moments at a press conference in September sent him somersaulting to the forefront of the minds of a lot of fans. Unfortunately, Rodriguez isn’t all that good. Borjas is legitimately dangerous despite his record, and these odds should be completely even. Let’s take the plus money here.
Performance of the Night: Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober
The co-main event won’t last more than five minutes, but every second will be a fantastic watch. Torres is a maestro at finishing fights in the first round, and Dober is a fan favorite for his many wars inside the octagon. Someone’s going out, and someone’s going out quick. Don’t miss this fight.
Snoozer of the Night: Rafa Garcia vs. Vinc Pichel
We can’t honestly say there’s anyone really looking forward to this fight, but just in case you had any doubts, here it is. Garcia is a good boxer, but he doesn’t throw with volume or power. Pichel is on the wrong side of 40 and hasn’t scored a win since 2021. Garcia will out-point him with crisp jabs and solid footwork for 15 minutes in a fight devoid of highlights.
Parlay Bet: 4-Leg Spread on FanDuel
Leg 1: Joe Pyfer – (-350)
Leg 2: Kevin Borjas – (+130)
Leg 3: Drew Dober – (+100)
Try your luck with our featured parlay bet! Check out the odds and details above, then click the button to place your wager on FanDuel.
UFC Mexico: Moreno vs. Erceg Breakdown
Australia’s Steve Erceg makes the trek to take on Mexico’s own Brandon Moreno in a rare flyweight main event in Mexico City. Here’s a look at the odds.
As the odds imply, this is a fairly evenly-matched fight. It will take place almost entirely on the feet, as both guys much prefer striking to any form of grappling. Both guys are primarily boxers, but they approach that art very differently. Erceg prefers a high guard, occasionally opening up to throw bombs rarely seen at flyweight.
On the flip side, Moreno is a much more volume-based fighter. His jab is one of the best in the division, and he effectively mixes in leg and body kicks throughout his fights. The former champion’s best chance at winning this fight is to stick and move constantly, peppering to the body of Erceg throughout the five-round fight.
If Moreno fights intelligently, he’ll look for body work and takedowns. Erceg has struggled against grapplers before, namely Alexandre Pantoja in his title shot nearly a year ago. Moreno has excellent jiu-jitsu, and a couple of takedowns always go a long way in securing rounds in the eyes of the judges.
While the odds are fairly close, there’s a solid lean to Moreno here. It’s a hometown fight, always a helpful factor if the fight heads to decision. He’s a better technical boxer, has more five-round experience, and has a significant edge in the grappling department. A finish is not out of the question, but our best bet is Moreno by decision.
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