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The Weekender: UFC Bets and a Look at the Niners
Another Saturday means another set of UFC bets. We’ve got coverage across three sports today with our regular UFC picks, NBA quick hitters, and a closer look at the debacle currently unfolding at the hands of San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch and his head coach, Kyle Shanahan.
Here’s what we've got today:
NBA Quick Hitters
UFC Fight Night Picks and Fades
What’s Going on in San Francisco?
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NBA Quick Hitters
🔹 Sharp Money Alert: After a solid win against the Mavericks, the Spurs opened as 3.5-point favorites against the Hornets. That line has increased to 6.5. San Antonio has been far too inconsistent to warrant faith in a spread that large, so we’re happy to take the points and back Charlotte.
🔹 Odds Boost to Grab: Sleeper Picks is currently offering a 100% deposit match up to $1,500, compared to a 50% deposit match from Underdog. If you need a new book, Sleeper is worth a gander.
🔹 Trap Game Warning: The Cavs are taking 84% of the money as 2-point favorites against the Grizzlies. With no Jaren Jackson Jr. or Santi Aldama, we’ll ride with the public on this one and back Cleveland on the road.
UFC Picks and Fades
We won’t even lie, this is a pretty mediocre fight card. Thankfully, there are still good betting opportunities that help make some of the more boring matchups watchable. Let’s get into it.
Lock of the Night: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-210)
We’re playing it a bit fast and loose here, sending out a lock of the night that’s only -210 instead of the usual -500. Zaleski dos Santos is facing Chidi Njokuani, who isn’t quite bum status, but he’s far from a legitimately good opponent. Zaleski dos Santos has faced far better fighters than Njokuani, and he should utilize his excellent jiu-jitsu to find a submission win here.
Fade of the Night: Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze
It’s hard to fade the main event, but there’s no reasonable path to winning money here. Vettori has been out of action for nearly two years, but he’s fighting Dolidze, one of the most inconsistent, confusing fighters in the UFC to bet on. While it should be a good watch, there are a ton of better spots to stick your money.
Upset of the Night: Daniel Barez vs. Andre Lima
It’s shocking to see Barez as this big of an underdog. The Spaniard has been far above-average in his UFC run, losing only to the underrated Jafel Filho. Lima is 3-0, but it’s a very questionable undefeated record. One win came because his opponent bit him and got disqualified, and another came against Mitch Raposo. Barez should be closer to +230, so we’re happy to lay the chalk on his money line.
Performance of the Night: Kevin Vallejos vs. Seungwoo Choi
Remember the name Kevin Vallejos. The 26-year old has only lost once in his career, to Jean Silva, a proud owner of a 4-0 record in the UFC. Vallejos gave Silva more of a test than any of his UFC matchups, and now he’s being fed a nice debut matchup. The Argentinian should score a knockout well before the third round, using his excellent boxing, reminiscent of Ilia Topuria’s, to floor Choi with a right hand.
Snoozer of the Night: Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Cody Gibson
Neither of these fighters has put on an exciting fight in recent memory. Blackshear either gets knocked out or engages in point kickboxing and control grappling. Gibson is heavily reliant on his jiu-jitsu, largely because his striking could be found in regional MMA promotions across the United States. All of these factors add up to forgettable fight.
Parlay Bet: 4-Leg Spread on FanDuel
Leg 1: Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos – (-210)
Leg 2: Daniel Barez – (+310)
Leg 3: Kevin Vallejos by KO – (-150)
Leg 4: Blackshear vs. Gibson GTD – (-180)
Try your luck with our featured parlay bet! Check out the odds and details above, then click the button to place your wager on FanDuel.
What’s Going on in San Francisco?
There have been endless bad offseasons in recent NFL memory. It seems that the 49ers are doing their best to earn a spot on that list with their front office performance in the last couple of days. First, let’s take a look at who they’ve failed to retain from their 2024 team.
Offensive Depatures
WR Deebo Samuel
G Aaron Banks
OT Jaylen Moore
RB Elijah Mitchell
QB Josh Dobbs
FB Kyle Juszczyk
Defensive Departures
LB Dre Greenlaw
S Talanoa Hufanga
CB Charvarius Ward
DE Leonard Floyd
DT Javon Hargrave
DT Maliek Collins
Offensively, the damage doesn’t look too bad. A starting receiver, a starting guard, and a fullback who was making too much money to keep around are the biggest casualties. Things could be worse.
And they are worse on the defensive side of the ball. Five starters and an important rotational player have all hit the road. Some of these guys were not only starters, but excellent players, including a former All-Pro in Hufanga. Last season proved that the Niners do not have the depth to effectively replace these players from within, yet they haven’t made any impactful signings that could salve the wounds of these departures.
One of the reasons for this inaction is the looming Brock Purdy contract extension. Word is that Purdy is looking at a contract that would net him $45 million per year, a steep increase from the contract he received as a seventh-round pick. Despite a longstanding accusation of being a system quarterback, it seems that the Niners are willing to hitch their wagon to Purdy, even though the support system surrounding him has taken a significant blow.
This will be a defining season for the 49ers. Overcoming a deteriorating roster to earn a playoff berth under Purdy would mean that San Francisco continues to pour resources into supporting their franchise quarterback in pursuit of the ever-elusive Lombardi Trophy. Another season like 2024 would turn the team toward a rebuild, likely endangering the jobs of both Lynch and Shanahan. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens.
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