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The Weekender: UFC Returns and Your Team's Next Pick at the Senior Bowl
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The weekend approaches, and with it, hopefully, an end to a cold betting streak. The newsletter picks have been, in a word, atrocious, at least lately. Wednesday was particularly rough, so it’s huge that weekend betting opportunities have arrived. We’ve got some excellent UFC action tomorrow morning and a rebound parlay that is sure to hit (right?). Dare we say that we’re due?
Here’s what we've got today:
Suns-Warriors Same Game Parlay
UFC Saudi Arabia Picks: 3 Fight Breakdowns and Picks
Senior Bowl Coverage: Three Standouts and Best Team Fits
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Suns-Warriors Same Game Parlay
The rebound begins with some Friday night basketball. The Suns make a trip up the coast to take on a Warriors team that is clawing its way back from a number of crippling injuries. The return of Stephen Curry should make this a closer game than many think, so let’s get into the picks.
1) Grayson Allen Over 14.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assist
This is a fantastic line. Allen tuned the Warriors up for 17 points the last time these teams played, and he’s cracked the over on this one in three of his previous five games.
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Golden State has been middle of the pack against shooting guards in nearly every category, and Allen has played more than 25 minutes in his last three contests. This line is too low to take the under.
2) Nick Richards Under 9.5 Points
This number is right around Richards’ season average, but the under feels fairly comfortable. Kevon Looney is starting for the Warriors, a consistently solid defender against opposing centers who share a skillset with Richards.
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Mason Plumlee will likely get lots of minutes as the backup, eating into Richards’ scoring opportunities. Additionally, the Suns center has scored in double-digits just once in Phoenix’s last five games.
3) Buddy Hield Under 2.5 Three Pointers Made
At first glance, this is a risky one. Hield is a 36% three-point shooter in the starting lineup in a competitive game. Luckily for us, Hield has been on a bit of a cooler as of late.
The Warriors have been giving fewer and fewer minutes, partially because he’s hit two threes in his last four games. Three threes are generous for a notoriously streaky shooter who’s been icy cold lately.
This isn’t a home-run parlay, but ten bucks turns into $54.
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UFC Saudi Arabia Best Bets
Thank all that is good the UFC is back. The preeminent combat sports promotion took last weekend off, but it’s back with an excellent Fight Night card off in Saudi Arabia. There are plenty of entertaining fights and a couple of bets that stand out from the rest. Make sure you take note of the 6 a.m. start time so you don’t miss the sweat.
1) Hamdy Abdelwahab ML (-118)
This will be a name diehard fans recognize. Abdelwahab, a former wrestling Olympian out of Egypt, debuted for the UFC a couple of years back and won against Don’Tale Mayes. Unfortunately, that win was followed up by a PED bust that sidelined Abdelwahab for two years.
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Now, he’ll have the chance to face one of the worst heavyweights on the roster, Jamal Pogues. Pogues has horrible caliber of opponent, and he’s never faced a wrestler even close to Abdelwahab’s caliber. The returning Egyptian should be a -160 favorite easy, so we’ll take the chalk here.
2) Bogdan Grad ML (-105)
This is a bit scarier than the Abdelwahab pick. Grad will be a UFC debutante on Saturday, but he’s shown a solid skill base throughout his MMA career. He boasts elite cardio, a fantastic chin, and an exciting, powerful kickboxing game.
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Bogdan Grad lands a right overhand against Michael Aswell
While Grad is a respectable fighter, this pick is more about his opponent. Lucas Alexander is not a UFC-level talent. Last time out, he was put out cold by Jeka Seragih, one of the worst members of the entire UFC roster. Alexander doesn’t have the pop to finish Grad or the technical skills to outpoint him.
3) Michael “Venom” Page ML (+154)
Page has been one of the deadliest kickboxers in the world for some time now, and this fight against Shara Magomedov promises to be a pure standup affair. MVP is an expert in managing distance and closing it with a variety of strikes.
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He won’t stand in the pocket with Magomedov and give him a still target like many have. Expect Page to weave in and out of range, land his big right hand, and slow the pace of the fight down on the way to a decision win.
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Senior Bowl Coverage: Three Standouts and Their Best Fits
So begins the lull in football content. The college season is long since done, and the NFL has a precious 60 minutes left in the year. Thankfully, the draft cycle is kicking up, beginning with the Senior Bowl. As always, there have been winners and losers in this year’s practice bonanzas. Here are three guys who have drastically improved their stock over the past week.
1) Mike Green, EDGE, Marshall University
It isn’t often someone out of Marshall gets first-round hype, but Green is more than deserving of it. After a 17-sack season, Green had a dominant week of practice, showing off all the traits that led to his regular-season success.
Against some of the best offensive linemen in the nation, Green displayed an elite first step, a rare bend around the edge, and a high-level ability to translate speed into power. Those traits have solidified his status as a first-round pick.
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Good edge rushers are always in demand, so there are several potential fits for Green. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at 19th overall, stand out, as their defensive presence on the edge last season left a lot to be desired.
2) Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Texas A&M University
Stewart shares a lot of similarities with Green. He also boasts elite speed around the edge and an insane level of off-the-ball quickness. Where he has an edge (no pun intended) is in size. Stewart worked all of those qualities and his 6’6”, 290-pound frame in a quality week of practice at the Senior Bowl. His tape looked a bit like Odafe Oweh, a former first-round pick by the Baltimore Ravens.
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The Falcons and Cardinals should both be taking a good look at Stewart in the middle of the first round. They each have deficiencies at his position, and he’ll likely be available for them to take a flyer on.
3) Jaxson Dart, QB, Ole Miss
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Dart won’t climb into the first round, but he looked tremendous at the Senior Bowl. His delivery was smooth, and almost every throw was on the money. He looked poised in a high-pressure moment, and showed the upside that will likely convince a team to make him a Day 2 pick.
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