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Three Crucial Game 2 Matchups
The playoffs march forward, and today we’ve got three crucial game twos. First up are the continuations of the two worst first-round matchups, the Magic-Celtics and the Heat-Cavaliers games. Those are essentially foregone conclusions, but the nightcap of Warriors-Rockets makes a mediocre day of basketball much better.
Here’s what we've got today:
Magic-Celtics Pick
Heat-Cavaliers Pick
Warriors-Rockets Pick
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Magic vs. Celtics Pick
The big storyline of this game is the absence of Jayson Tatum. The star forward is dealing with a wrist injury that has him doubtful for Game 2, closing what would’ve been a 15-point spread to 10.5.
While 10.5 seems pretty big, the talent discrepancy between these teams is big enough to justify it, even without Tatum. The Celtics maintain their defensive capabilities despite his absence, as Derrick White, Jrue Holiday and Jaylen Brown did an excellent job in Game 1, matchup up well with Orlando’s best players.
The only way the Magic can keep things close is by slowing down the pace of play and forcing the Celtics to execute their half court offense consistently. Unfortunately, Boston proved completely capable of breaking down their formidable defense through a barrage of three-pointers, even with Tatum being fairly ineffective in Game 1. It’s hard to see the Magic remaining close on the road against an opponent that is superior in every way. We’re riding with Boston’s spread.
Heat vs. Cavaliers Pick
It’s a bit surprising to see that the spread for this game is bigger than the one in the Celtics game. The Heat played well for just over three quarters on Sunday, with the Cavaliers opening the gap in the fourth quarter behind monster contributions from their bench.
If you’re a consistent reader, you know how much we value Miami’s coaching staff and overall playoff experience. The Heat are a consistently tough out in the postseason thanks to head coach Erik Spoelstra, who’s ability to make defensive adjustments on the fly played a huge part in keeping the Heat close in Game 1. That factor should continue to be important here.
Despite those defensive adjustments, the Cavaliers shot incredibly well from the field, including knocking down threes at a 42% clip. Cleveland also managed to turn the ball over only seven times, half of their regular season average. Both numbers should regress to the mean a little bit in the second game, while Miami continues to play solid, unspectacular ball to lose and cover.
Warriors vs. Rockets Pick
Finally, the best game of the night. Game 1 featured everything a fan could want in a playoff game, including a ridiculous Stephen Curry performance and insane levels of effort from the entire Rockets team. We should be in for more of the same in Game 2.
Things went about as well as they could have for Golden State in Game 1. They effectively shut down any Houston fast break attempts, forcing the Rockets to play effective half court offense for all 48 minutes. The offense wasn’t anything to write home about, but the Warriors still shot 48% from the field while being lifted by some truly spectacular offensive play from Curry.
The opposite was true for Houston. The Rockets suffered through one of their worst offensive days of the entire season, shooting only 20% from three as a team while their leading scorer, Jalen Green, was held to seven points. The Warriors’ defense of course deserves some credit, but the Rockets were bricking wide open threes and missing shots that fell for them all year. Add in some early foul trouble for Amen Thompson, a crucial defensive piece, and it’s surprising the game was as close as it was.
There’s just no way that Houston plays as poorly on offense as they did in the first meeting between these two teams. With that being said, a 3.5-point spread is plain disrespect for a Warriors team that remains one of the hottest in the NBA. Golden State should cover, but a victory for them is far from certain.
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