- Ballers
- Posts
- UFC 313: It's Time
UFC 313: It's Time
It’s that time again. It’s been about a month since UFC 312, a somewhat lackluster pay-per-view card in Sydney, Australia. The UFC’s return to Las Vegas promises a better showing, highlighted by light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira’s fourth title defense, this time against number one contender Magomed Ankalaev.
We’ve got a full breakdown of the main card and analysis of the best bets of the 12 contests below.
Here’s what we've got today:
Main Card Breakdown and Analysis
Best Bets Throughout the Card
Make sure you’re all set up with our special offers.
Share with your friends and get entered to win free cash.
UFC 313: Main Card Breakdown
This main card has the potential to be one of the best of the year. Every fight should be a war, and it’s capped with one of the most anticipated title matchups in recent memory. This section won’t feature betting advice, but a closer, more fight-focused breakdown of the fights.
Main Card Opener: Mauricio Ruffy vs. King Green
Ruffy, a member of the Fighting Nerds gym, is one of the brightest prospects the UFC has to offer. He’s earned two UFC wins, one of which netted a performance bonus.
This fight will take place almost entirely on the feet. Green is one of the most entertaining boxers in the UFC, utilizing a slick Philly Shell defense while landing punches from all angles. Green’s hands will have to compensate offensively against Ruffy’s multifaceted, rangy kickboxing attack.
Ruffy is a heavy favorite for good reason, but his cardio might level the playing field. Green has a pretty solid chin and excellent head movement, and Ruffy gassed out badly midway through the second round his last time out. If Green can extend the fight, he’ll have a chance to pinpoint Ruffy’s chin as the latter’s cardio depletes.
Look for Ruffy to tan up Green’s legs and body in the early going to slow down some of that dynamic movement. The spinning elbows and heel kicks will come late in the first round and early in the second while Ruffy has his reads and still has his cardio.
Second Main Card Bout: Amanda Lemos vs. Iasmin Lucindo
We talked a lot about how exciting this card is, but this might be the lone snoozer. Lucindo is a fantastic defensive fighter, taking only 33 strikes over 15 minutes her last time out. Lemos typically doesn’t have a high striking output, so this should be a slow one.
Lucindo’s best trait is her jiu-jitsu. She’s landed multiple takedowns in each of her last four fights, and Lemos has struggled to defend the ground game, losing fights to Zhang Weili and Virna Jandiroba because of her inability to keep the fight standing.
This fight should follow a classic Lemos fight script: Get taken down, controlled, and try to squeeze in power punches if or when the fight gets back to the feet. Lucindo should cruise to a decision win.
Third Main Card Bout: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Jalin Turner
One of the most interesting stylistic fights of the night will include two 6’3” 155ers. Bahamondes has his last two, both by first-round knockout, while Turner is suffering through a career swing in the other direction. Once considered one of the best lightweight prospects in the world, he’s lost three of his last four.
An emerging narrative surrounding Turner has been his inability to finish fights. A failed walk-off KO against Renato Moicano led to a TKO defeat, and the Dan Hooker fight slipped through his fingers in the waning minutes of action. It’ll be interesting to see if Turner has fixed his late-fight problems as he enters a contest that could determine his future with the UFC.
A strike to watch is the right cross of Bahamondes. The Chilean has ended fights with it before, and it should be a featured part of the game plan. Turner has moments of recklessness when closing the distance, a weakness that should be met with the sniper cross of Bahamondes.
Co-Main Event: Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev
What a fight this one is. These two lightweights have met before, in a razor-close Gaethje victory in front of an appreciative London crowd. Both men were on the up-and-up the first time around, but things have changed considerably since then. Gaethje is coming off of being knocked out cold at UFC 300, and Fiziev has lost two straight and taken 18 months away from the octagon to rehab a torn ACL.
Most expect a striking war, but don’t be surprised if Gaethje goes back to his wrestling roots. He should aim to preserve a chin that’s seen immeasurable damage, and Fiziev’s stance and forward movement are both conducive to timing double-leg takedowns. Gaethje used a takedown to ice the last fight, and he would be foolish to disregard the tactic in this one.
Fiziev’s best chance at victory is to go for broke in round one. He took this fight on ten days’ notice, severely harming an already suspect gas tank. Gaethje is now 36, and has taken part in some of the most legendary wars in UFC history. It’s entirely possible that a clean left hook or an unblocked head kick puts him down and out. Expect Fiziev to start fast and wager his chances at winning on a first-round finish.
Main Event: Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev
A lot has been said about the wrestling abilities of Ankalaev, but that seems like much ado about nothing. The challenger has never attempted a submission in the UFC, and only secures takedowns at a 31% clip. Pereira’s grappling hasn’t been tested since the summer of 2023, so it’s fair to assume he’s made improvements. Ankalaev will shoot and score some takedowns, but this will be a striking match for most of the fight.
Unsurprisingly, Pereira has a significant advantage on the feet. Ankalaev’s favorite strike is his straight left, an attack that brings him well into range of Pereira’s deadly left hook. Several fighters have countered and knocked down Ankalaev off of that strike. A Pereira left hook won’t just knock him down if it lands.
The physical intangibles do not match up well for Ankalaev. Khalil Rountree is faster and has a longer reach, and he still struggled to find Pereira’s chin on his blitzes. The champ was also consistently countering Rountree on entries, Ankalaev will need to be exceedingly cautious as he enters the pocket.
Leg kicks have long been an Ankalaev kryptonite, and Pereira is one of the best in the game in that department. The champion should fire attacks to the inside and outside of Ankalaev’s lead leg, using them to set up the right high kick that featured prominently in his last title defense.
Pereira’s body work will be crucial to keeping him safe from the inevitable grappling attacks. Jabs and crosses aimed that the chest will deter Ankalaev from changing levels, even more so if they land consistently.
The switch knee earned Pereira a UFC knockout in his debut, and he’ll throw it a couple times in this fight, regardless of if it lands. The strike comes in on the same side as Ankalaev’s head as he shoots, so the knee will be a powerful deterant.
Best Bets Throughout the Card
Like most PPVs, there’s plenty of money to be made here. Let’s hop right into it.
Lock of the Night: Curtis Blaydes (-335)
Blaydes should honestly be favored even more. He’s fighting a UFC debutante who’s biggest victories came with the help of PEDs. Every time Blaydes has fought an up-and-comer he’s come through big, even in harder matchups like Jailton Almeida fight. We trust him to take out his blob-like opponent in this one.
Fade of the Night: Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
This fight is sure to be a banger, but betting on it is a dubious proposition at best. Turner might be a slightly better grappler, but it’s hard to envision him taking advantage of that tonight. It’s best to leave this one out of all parlays.
Upset of the Night: Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev
The reasons to believe in Gaethje are outlined above in detail. We’ve got a hunch that he’ll actually wrestle in this one, too. Deteriorating chin+last potential title run=a smarter, more cautious Gaethje who for once prioritizes a win over entertainment value.
Performance of the Night: Mauricio Ruffy vs. King Green
If our hunch is correct, the co-main likely won’t be in contention for this accolade. Instead, the always-flashy Ruffy will put on a show against Green, a fighter notoriously open to sacrificing brain cells for a crowd roar. Ruffy will throw his spinning back kicks, no-look hooks, and switch knees on the way to a crowd-pleasing, bonus-earning knockout win.
Snoozer of the Night: Chris Gutierrez vs. John Castaneda
Gutierrez was once known as an exciting bantamweight prospect, but a series of uninspiring losses have lost him both descriptors. He somehow manages to make striking boring, relying on leg kicks and jabs to keep distance and stay out of trouble.
Castaneda isn’t exactly Dustin Poirier either. He’s a pressure grappler, a term analysts use to kindly describe lay-and-pray fighters who prioritize position over submission. Expect the judges’ scorecards after a slow, uninspiring fifteen minutes.
Parlay Bet: 4-Leg Spread on FanDuel
Leg 1: Curtis Blaydes – (-335)
Leg 2: Justin Gaethje – (+184)
Leg 3: Mauricio Ruffy by KO – (-168)
Try your luck with our featured parlay bet! Check out the odds and details above, then click the button to place your wager on FanDuel.
That's our rundown. Follow us on Twitter and Instagram for more hot tips and even hotter memes. We’re always having give aways and special promotions. Don't miss out on the fun!
Disclaimer: We solely provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes. We do not take bets, place bets, or receive affiliate revenues from companies that do. We have no financial interest in our readers or subscribers placing wagers.