It feels like its been ages since the last pay-per-view, but we’re back in business tomorrow. Alexander Volkanovski returns after a layoff that lasted a little more than a year to fight for his old belt. Standing in his way is young upstart Diego Lopes, a man with a 5-1 record in the UFC and the tools to become a long-reigning champion. The rest of the card features bangers throughout, so let’s get into it.

Here’s what we've got today:

• UFC Quick Hitters

• The Cycle Parlay

• Main Event Breakdown

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UFC Quick Hitters

Lock of the Night: Jean Silva

Silva was featured here for his last fight, and he came through with a first-round finish. Here, we get the benefit of a much better line when betting on him. Mitchell is no slouch, but avoiding Silva’s power for three rounds is not in his wheelhouse. Things might seem a little sweaty in the early going, but Silva should find a finish in the late second or early third.

Fade of the Night: Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett

Everybody knows Chandler’s deal. He’s a damn good fighter, but he’d be a whole lot better if he didn’t fight with the same IQ as your uncle at the family cookout. On the other side, Pimblett has some easily exploitable tendencies on the feet, namely his habit of keeping his chin high and hanging while entering the pocket. It’s feasible that Chandler nearly takes Pimblett’s head off, but it’s also feasible that Chandler rocks him, shoots a takedown, and gets subbed. Best to let this one go and enjoy one of the few Chandler showings we have left.

Upset of the Night: Dominick Reyes vs. Nikita Krylov

Seeing Reyes as a dog is a shock. He’s on a two-fight win streak, and Krylov, despite his win streak, hasn’t fought in a couple of years. The Ukrainian also has a tendency to blitz forward in wild advances, exposing himself to counters throughout his fights. Reyes is an excellent kickboxer, and his counter left hand should find the mark multiple times as Krylov shakes off the ring rust.

Performance of the Night: Julian Erosa vs. Darren Elkins

This doesn’t have ranked implications or anything, but damn will it be a fun fight. Elkins is known for his inhuman ability to take damage and keep going, while Erosa has been in his fair share of wars throughout his tenure with the company. Elkins will march forward through a hail of head kicks, spinning back kicks, and wild, winging punches, all to either be finished or find a grimy clinch knockout against Juicy J.

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The Cycle Parlay

In a new segment to our UFC series, we’ll try to hit a parlay by picking one fighter by submission, one by knockout, and another by decision. Let’s hope for some beginner’s luck here.

1) Chase Hooper by Submission (-105)

Hooper is a wizard on the ground, first reaching the UFC because of his insanely high-level jiu-jitsu. His opponent, the legend Jim Miller, is losing the battle against Father Time at 41. He’s clearly lost a step (through no fault of his own), and now he’s stepping up against a 25-year-old prospect who has won his last four fights. Hooper should be able to find a club-and-sub to end the fight early, likely within a round and a half.

2) Marco Tulio by KO/TKO (+115)

We can’t honestly say that this will be a great fight. Tulio is a fairly high-level prospect facing Tresean Gore, one of the bottom-feeders of the middleweight division. The Brazilian has a massive array of weapons on the feet, utilizing head kicks, spinning kicks, and huge elbows to crack opponents on the feet. Meanwhile, Gore has incredibly suspect striking defense, often relying on toughness rather than defense to get through big shots. Anyone who’s been knocked out by Cody Brundage is at high risk of being finished by just about anybody, so Tulio should find a knockout blow here.

3) Patricio Pitbull by Decision (+430)

Here’s the real moneymaker of the parlay. Pitbull is facing Yair Rodriguez, a taekwondo fighter who has been exposed on the ground multiple times. In addition to a crazy reach advantage with his legs, Rodriguez has 5.5 inches of reach advantage with his hands, making standing near-suicidal for Pitbull. Rodriguez has terrible takedown defense, relying on distance control to stay off of the ground. Pitbull should look to make it a boring, cage-pushing matchup that bleeds time off of the clock. As long as he doesn’t eat an absolute bomb on the way in, Pitbull should be able to follow the gameplan successfully.

Main Event Breakdown

What a storyline we have here. Volkanovski, who many consider the featherweight GOAT, gets what is almost certainly one final shot at his old belt. In the opposite corner is Diego Lopes, a berserker who has rattled off five straight UFC victories, three of which came by finish. Title fights don’t get much better than this.

Any veteran UFC fan knows how Volk fights. Despite only being 5’6”, he controls distance insanely well, utilizing a fantastic jab, inside leg kick, and otherworldly cardio to break his opponents. He doesn’t present much of a submission threat, but he does deliver some of the best ground-and-pound in the UFC if things hit the mat.

In many ways, these guys are polar opposites. Lopes is a power puncher, chasing finishes early and often. His overhand and uppercut from the right side are absolutely deadly, and his jiu-jitsu legitimately might be one of the best in the entire promotion.

So how do these styles clash? Volkanovski’s top priority will be surviving the early rounds. He’s suffered two straight knockout losses, and Lopes will be selling out in the first couple of rounds to make it a third. As Lopes crashes forward, Volk will need to pop his jab, keep his back off of the fence, and look for opportunities to work the body.

Assuming the Aussie survives past the first two rounds, he can really start opening up. Volkanovski can begin to fight off of the front foot as Lopes suffers from the earlier bodywork, slowing down exponentially. Wrestling is an option, but Lopes is too dangerous off of his back to make it a truly appealing one. Instead, Volkanovski should start looking to initiate more exchanges in close, as Lopes won’t have the cardio to throw long combos that would have earlier finished the fight.

If this goes the distance, Volkanovski will almost certainly be the winner. The trick will be testing out the chin in the first two rounds. At even money, a bet on Volk is more than justified. As of now, he’s -138, a price that’s just too steep to confidently bet. If that drops before these guys make the walk, bet it. If not, stay away and watch the fireworks from a distance.

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